The NBA playoffs are in full swing, and one of the most exciting matchups of the first round is the Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves series. The Nuggets, led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, are the higher seed and have home court advantage, but the Timberwolves are a scrappy team with talented players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards.
Game 4 of the series is scheduled for Thursday, May 4th, and the odds are in favor of the Nuggets. According to the latest odds from sportsbooks, the Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 233.5 points.
But as any experienced NBA bettor will tell you, odds can be deceiving. That’s why many bettors look to advanced statistical models to guide their picks. One model that has been particularly successful this season is the one from SportsLine, which is on a 71-37 run in predicting NBA games.
So what does the SportsLine model have to say about this matchup? Well, it predicts that the Nuggets will indeed win Game 4, but perhaps not by as much as the odds suggest. The model gives the Nuggets a 62.3% chance of winning, with an expected final score of 121-115.
Of course, no model is infallible, and there are several factors that could swing this game in either direction. For example, the Timberwolves have shown the ability to get hot from three-point range, which could be a problem for a Nuggets team that hasn’t been particularly strong defensively this season.
On the other hand, the Nuggets have undeniable talent on their roster, and if Jokic and Jamal Murray are firing on all cylinders, they could blow the game wide open. It’s also worth noting that the Nuggets have historically been strong at home, with a 25-11 record at the Pepsi Center this season.
Ultimately, the outcome of this game (and the series as a whole) will likely come down to which team can execute their game plan more effectively. Will the Nuggets be able to slow down Towns and Edwards and get enough production from their supporting cast? Or will the Timberwolves pull off an upset thanks to an unlikely hero stepping up?
As always, the only way to find out is to tune in and watch the game. And if you want to add a little extra excitement to the proceedings, you might consider placing a bet based on the predictions of the SportsLine model. Who knows? Maybe you’ll end up on the winning side of a 71-37 run.
