With the 2023 NFL Draft on the horizon, analysts and scouts alike are already turning their attention to the top prospects at the quarterback position. While there is a lot of speculation and debate about which prospects will ultimately rise to the top, many experts are turning to a new tool to help them make their predictions: a college football performance formula.
What is a college football performance formula? Essentially, it’s a analytics-based approach to evaluating talent that takes into account a variety of factors beyond basic stats like yards and touchdowns. This approach incorporates advanced metrics and statistical models to produce a more complete picture of a quarterback’s abilities and potential at the next level.
So, using this performance formula as a guide, here are the top quarterback prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft:
1. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
Rattler is a quarterback who has been talked about as a potential No. 1 overall pick since his high school days. He had a solid season in 2020, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. Rattler’s strengths include his accuracy, mobility, and ability to make plays outside of the pocket.
2. Sam Howell, North Carolina
Howell has been one of the most prolific quarterbacks in college football over the past two seasons, throwing for over 7,000 yards and 68 touchdowns. He has a great arm and is adept at throwing the deep ball, and also has some mobility in the pocket. However, his lack of height (listed at 6-foot-1) could give some teams pause.
3. JT Daniels, Georgia
Daniels transferred from USC to Georgia in 2020 and had a solid season, throwing for nearly 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in just four games. He has an excellent arm and is a very accurate passer, but scouts will be watching closely to see how he fares against tough SEC defenses over a full season.
4. Malik Willis, Liberty
Willis is a bit of a wild card, as he played at the FCS level for two seasons before transferring to Liberty in 2020. However, he put up some eye-popping numbers last season, throwing for over 2,200 yards and 20 touchdowns while rushing for over 900 yards and 14 touchdowns. Willis has the size, arm strength, and mobility that NFL teams covet, but will need to continue to prove himself against tougher competition.
5. Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback who has been very productive over his first two seasons at Arizona State, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns while also rushing for over 700 yards and eight touchdowns. He has a quick release, good arm strength, and excellent speed, but will need to continue to improve his accuracy and decision-making.
Of course, this is just one approach to evaluating quarterback prospects, and there are countless variables that could impact who ultimately rises to the top. But using this performance formula as a starting point, it’s clear that Rattler, Howell, Daniels, Willis, and Daniels are all names to keep an eye on as the 2023 NFL Draft approaches.